John Lee, Sydney
The common wisdom is that a Barack Obama presidency will be better news for Indonesia and Southeast Asia. After all, Obama fondly recalls the four formative years he spent in Indonesia from the age of six until ten years old. Moreover, many believe that America under a Democratic administration will be more "outward looking" and a "better listener" than under a Republican one whether it is George W Bush or John McCain at the helm.
In contrast, the same year Obama arrived in Indonesia as a child, John McCain began a six year stint in Hanoi as a prisoner-of-war from 1967-1973. This has shaped McCain's personality, and perhaps the style of his possible presidency. McCain is determined and headstrong.
He is also more confrontational than conciliatory, and listening to others is not noted as one of his stronger points. McCain would be greeted politely by many Indonesians. Obama will possibly be greeted rapturously. As the president of the United States, Obama appears the more exciting prospect for many Indonesians.
Individual background and personality is one thing. A difference in national security strategy -- which is much more important in determining the actions of the U.S. -- is another. America's foreign policy in Asia has not been a huge issue in the current campaign.
But this doesn't mean there are no important differences between the two candidates when it comes to Asia. In fact there are and they are significant. In many respects, a McCain administration will be much better aligned with Indonesian interests than an Obama one.
It comes down to what both candidates what to achieve most in our region for America over the period of their presidency.
John McCain will seek to build on what former Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage wanted to achieve: Working with existing American alliance and security partners to "shape" the future of Asia. This means reaffirming existing security alliances with countries such as Japan, Thailand, Philippines, South Korea and Australia. It also means deepening relations with American security partners such as Malaysia and Indonesia.
This strategy is designed to not only improve American standing and influence in the region but to also "manage" the rise of China through its existing network of bilateral relationships. America recognizes that its period as an undisputed hegemony in the region is gradually declining. But by working with current allies and partners to shape the rules and institutions of the region, the plan is to prevent future Chinese mischief and persuade China that it is better to play by agreed rules than to subvert or revise them.
In other words, an administration under McCain would see partners in Southeast Asia (such as Indonesia) as critical to its East Asian strategy. This is something ASEAN powers (with the exception of Myanmar) should welcome.
Barack Obama would have a different strategy. Obama's most influential advisors on Asia such as Jeff Bader from Brookings came from the Bill Clinton administration. Under Obama, just as it was under Clinton, the centerpiece of American security strategy for the region will be to deepen its relationship with China.
But critically, this will be done primarily through direct and bilateral engagement with the Chinese. Rather than shape future Chinese preferences through working with existing partners in East and Southeast Asia, as McCain will attempt to do, America under Obama will try to deepen one-on-one relations with China. The foundation of this strategy is that tensions with China stem from "misunderstandings" rather than from any emerging structural or "values-based" conflicts of interest.
This does not mean that America will abandon its relationship with countries like Indonesia. It won't. But China will dominate America's attention. And when it comes to this all-important China-policy, Obama is unlikely to see a significant role for Southeast Asia.
There will be less consultation with Southeast Asian alliance and security partners simply because Southeast Asia will be viewed as strategically less relevant when it comes to the issue of "managing" the rise of China.
Both candidates will very quickly express affection and attribute importance to America's relationship with Indonesia upon assuming power. Barack Obama will be the more exciting personality as president of the U.S. for Indonesians. But John McCain will likely be a better ally.
The writer is a foreign policy visiting fellow at the Centre for Independent Studies in Sydney. His paper, China's Insecurity and Search for Power, will be released by CIS on Nov. 4.
Source www.The Jakarta Post.com , November 03, 2008
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